Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
