A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
